Service Design Tools

Scenario Planning

Scenario planning helps organizations navigate uncertainty by creating multiple plausible future narratives. Instead of predicting a single future, develop 3-4 distinct scenarios. These scenarios act as lenses for testing strategies and finding robust actions that work across various futures.

Duration
8 hours
Group Size
8-12
Category
Service Design Tools
Difficulty
Easy

  • Develop plausible future scenarios to bound uncertainty.

  • Challenge mental models and expand thinking about possibilities.

  • Create early warning systems for emerging futures.

  • Test strategy robustness across different conditions.

  • Build organizational capacity for strategic conversation about the future.

  • Identify no-regret actions that work across scenarios.


  • Completed scenario planning exercise.

  • Developed multiple future scenarios.

  • Strategic preparation for various futures.

Before the workshop:

  • Have participants complete environmental scanning.

  • Share relevant research and trend reports.

  • Interview thought leaders, if possible.

  • Prepare a fact base on key uncertainties.


During the workshop:

  • Maintain creative tension between plausibility and challenge. It's easy for a scenario to become the 'official future' - prevent this.

  • Ensure all scenarios are equally developed.

  • Use immersive techniques (artifacts, role-play) to bring scenarios to life.

  • Guard against probability discussions; all scenarios are plausible.


Common pitfalls:

  • Scenarios are too similar (not enough stretch).

  • Participants project the present into the future (insufficient change).

  • Probability debates derail the process.

  • Over-quantification loses narrative power.

  • Scenarios are not connected to strategic decisions.


Follow-up actions:

  • Create a scenario communication package.

  • Integrate scenarios into the strategic planning process.

  • Establish a scenario monitoring dashboard.

  • Run wind-tunneling sessions for major decisions.

  • Update scenarios annually.


Success factors:

  • Senior leadership engagement throughout.

  • A diverse, creative participant group.

  • Balance between analysis and imagination.

  • A clear connection to strategic decisions.

  • Organizational commitment to use the scenarios.


  1. Focal Question and Scope (45 min)


  • Define the specific strategic question the scenarios should address.

  • Set a time horizon (typically 10-20 years).

  • Establish geographic and thematic boundaries.

  • Align on success criteria.


  1. Driving Forces Identification (90 min)


  • Brainstorm forces shaping the future (STEEP analysis).

  • Include predetermined elements and critical uncertainties.

  • Map stakeholder values and interests.

  • Capture weak signals and emerging issues.


  1. Critical Uncertainties (75 min)


  • Assess driving forces on impact and uncertainty.

  • Identify 2-3 critical uncertainties (high impact/high uncertainty).

  • Ensure uncertainties are relatively independent.

  • Define uncertainty spectrums (not just binary).


  1. Scenario Framework (60 min)


  • Create a 2x2 matrix using the top two critical uncertainties.

  • Name the four scenario spaces.

  • Check for differentiation and plausibility.

  • Ensure scenarios challenge current thinking.


  1. Scenario Narratives (120 min)


  • Break into groups (one per scenario).

  • Develop a storyline: How did we get here?

  • Describe the world: key characteristics.

  • Include multiple stakeholder perspectives.

  • Create day-in-the-life vignettes.


  1. Scenario Enrichment (60 min)


  • Add quantitative indicators where relevant.

  • Develop scenario artifacts (news headlines, artifacts).

  • Identify early indicators for each scenario.

  • Check internal consistency.


  1. Implications and Strategy (90 min)


  • Assess the current strategy against each scenario.

  • Identify vulnerabilities and opportunities.

  • Develop strategic options for each scenario.

  • Find robust actions across all scenarios.


  1. Action Planning (30 min)


  • Define a monitoring system for early indicators.

  • Assign scenario champions.

  • Plan communication and socialization.

  • Schedule strategic review points.

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For Facilitators

  • Review participant profiles and expectations
  • Prepare all materials and supplies
  • Test technology and room setup

For Participants

  • Complete pre-session survey
  • Review background materials
  • Prepare examples or case studies

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  • Scenario planning templates and worksheets.

  • Large wall space for mapping.

  • Driving forces cards.

  • 2x2 matrix templates.

  • Persona templates for scenario characters.

  • Indicator tracking templates.

  • Digital collaboration platform for documentation.

  • Presentation templates for scenario communication.

Unlock Materials Required

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  • Facilitator Guide (PDF)
  • Participant Workbook Template
  • Presentation Slides
  • Printable Materials

Unlock Resources & Templates

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