Service Design Tools

Wild Card Analysis

Wild Card Analysis helps you explore low-probability, high-impact events. These events can disrupt assumptions. "Wild cards" help organizations prepare for change and develop adaptive capacity.

Duration
1.8 hours
Group Size
5-10
Category
Service Design Tools
Difficulty
Easy
Participants will: 1. Identify disruptive events. 2. Prepare for unexpected changes. 3. Develop resilience. 4. Challenge assumptions. 5. Create early warning systems. 6. Build contingency planning.
Participants will complete a wild card analysis and develop resilient strategies.
Encourage imaginative thinking. Look for events that would change everything. Consider cascading wild cards. Focus on systemic impacts. Consider how wild cards interact with current trends. Think about psychological responses. Build general adaptive capacity. Develop rapid sensing. Create flexible contingency plans. These are low-probability events. Don't let wild card planning dominate regular strategy. Use wild cards to stress-test assumptions.

  1. Wild Card Brainstorming (30 min): Generate wild card events across domains: natural disasters, technology, politics, economics, society, and health. Focus on low-probability, high-impact events. Aim for 20-30 potential wild cards.

  2. Wild Card Selection (15 min): Assess each wild card on impact magnitude, current probability (low), and relevance. Select 6-8 significant wild cards.

  3. Impact Analysis (40 min): For each wild card, determine how it would affect your organization. What are the secondary effects? What are the early warning signs? How prepared are you?

  4. Preparedness Assessment (15 min): Evaluate organizational resilience. Identify vulnerabilities. Assess adaptive capacity. Find blind spots.

  5. Response Strategies (5 min): Develop resilience principles. Create monitoring systems. Plan adaptive capabilities. Identify rapid response protocols.

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For Facilitators

  • Review participant profiles and expectations
  • Prepare all materials and supplies
  • Test technology and room setup

For Participants

  • Complete pre-session survey
  • Review background materials
  • Prepare examples or case studies

Unlock Pre-Work Requirements

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  • Wild card brainstorming templates

  • Impact assessment matrices

  • Futures wheel materials

  • Early warning indicator worksheets

  • Resilience assessment frameworks

  • Scenario-independent planning guides

Unlock Materials Required

Create a free account to access step-by-step instructions, agendas, and resources for all activities.

  • Facilitator Guide (PDF)
  • Participant Workbook Template
  • Presentation Slides
  • Printable Materials

Unlock Resources & Templates

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