Strategy

Assumption Mapping

Every project has assumptions. This exercise makes them visible. Write down what you think you know. Be honest about what's validated versus what you hope is true. The riskiest assumptions are often the ones you don't realize you're making.

Duration
45 mins
Group Size
4-8
Category
Strategy
Difficulty
Easy

  • Reveal hidden assumptions treated as facts.

  • Distinguish between knowledge and guesses.

  • Prioritize assumptions that could kill the project.

  • Create a testing plan for unknowns.

  • Build shared understanding.


  • A documented list of assumptions ranked by risk.

  • Critical assumptions are identified for validation.

  • Team understands the difference between knowledge and guesses.

People resist writing down 'obvious' assumptions. Push them. Ask, 'How do we know this?' If the answer is 'it's obvious,' put it on the wall.

Senior people's assumptions often go unquestioned. The sticky note format helps level the playing field. During placement, ask for disagreement: 'Does anyone see this differently?'

Teams overestimate their evidence. Challenge them. 'We did research' doesn't mean you validated this assumption. Be specific about what counts: behavioral data beats stated preferences.

If risk is debated, that's a red flag. Someone knows something others don't, or there's a strategic disagreement. Don't ignore it.

This is useless without follow-through. Assign owners and deadlines for the top 3 tests before leaving. Track them. I've seen teams ignore what they learned.

  1. Individual Brainstorm (7 minutes): Write assumptions on sticky notes (one per note). Consider categories like users, problem, solution, and business. Aim for 10+ assumptions each. Include obvious ones.

  2. Share and Cluster (10 minutes): Share assumptions aloud and stick them on a wall, clustering similar ones. Don't debate yet. Note different assumptions about the same thing.

  3. Build the Grid (5 minutes): Draw a 2x2 grid. Y-axis: Risk (impact if wrong). X-axis: Evidence (how much proof). Top-right is the danger zone.

  4. Place Assumptions (10 minutes): Place each cluster on the grid. Debate is good. If there's disagreement, note it.

  5. Select and Plan (8 minutes): Focus on the top-right (high risk, low evidence). Pick the top 3 to test. For each: What would prove it wrong? How to test it in a week? Who owns the test?

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For Facilitators

  • Review participant profiles and expectations
  • Prepare all materials and supplies
  • Test technology and room setup

For Participants

  • Complete pre-session survey
  • Review background materials
  • Prepare examples or case studies

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  • Sticky notes (2 colors)

  • Markers

  • Large wall space or whiteboard

  • Tape

  • Camera/phone

  • Optional: pre-drawn grid

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