Strategy
Prune the Future
Map future scenarios by creating a timeline of events. Prune unlikely or undesirable futures to focus on a preferred path. This helps teams align on strategy.
Duration
1.5 hours
Group Size
6-15
Category
Strategy
Difficulty
Easy
- Explore future scenarios.
- Identify preferred future outcomes.
- Create a realistic path forward.
- Align the team on strategic direction.
- A pruned future, eliminating unlikely paths.
- Focused planning and resource allocation.
The prune metaphor comes from gardening: remove branches that won't bear fruit to focus energy on productive growth. The same applies to futures. Sometimes teams struggle to 'cut off' ideas - remind them it's about focus, not killing ideas forever.
When creating branches:
For likelihood assessment, base it on trends, data, and expert opinion, not wishful thinking. Be realistic about what you can't control.
Remove branches that are very unlikely, undesirable (and you can't prevent), or incompatible with more important futures. Keep branches that are possible, desirable, within your influence, and aligned with your strategy.
Key decision points are moments when you must choose a direction, an external event forces a response, or critical information becomes available.
Use this exercise for strategic planning, long-term roadmapping, contingency planning, innovation portfolios, and risk assessment. Success looks like a clear preferred future path with key milestones, decision points, and identified next actions.
When creating branches:
- Be specific about events/milestones.
- Include external factors (not just internal plans).
- Consider wildcards and uncertainties.
- Don't censor initially – prune later.
For likelihood assessment, base it on trends, data, and expert opinion, not wishful thinking. Be realistic about what you can't control.
Remove branches that are very unlikely, undesirable (and you can't prevent), or incompatible with more important futures. Keep branches that are possible, desirable, within your influence, and aligned with your strategy.
Key decision points are moments when you must choose a direction, an external event forces a response, or critical information becomes available.
Use this exercise for strategic planning, long-term roadmapping, contingency planning, innovation portfolios, and risk assessment. Success looks like a clear preferred future path with key milestones, decision points, and identified next actions.
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