Strategy

Assumption Grid

Assumption mapping helps teams expose hidden risks. Plot assumptions on a certainty vs. risk matrix. Identify which assumptions need validation before moving forward.

Duration
45 mins
Group Size
4-10
Category
Strategy
Difficulty
Easy
Energy
Medium

Objectives

Surface hidden assumptions. Prioritize validation efforts. Reduce project risk. Create a learning agenda focused on critical unknowns.

Outcomes

Completed assumption grid. Mapped assumptions by risk and certainty. Prioritized validation plan.

Step-by-Step Instructions


  1. Brainstorm all assumptions underlying your ideas or plans. 2. Plot these on a 2x2 matrix: Certainty (uncertain to certain) on the x-axis, Risk (low to high) on the y-axis. 3. High-risk, uncertain assumptions (top-left quadrant) need immediate validation. 4. Plan experiments or research to test these critical assumptions.

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Facilitator Tips

New assumptions will emerge during mapping—capture them. Use this early in projects to avoid building on shaky ground. I've seen teams get bogged down arguing about the placement of an assumption. Don't let that happen. Focus on the high-risk, uncertain quadrant first.

Pre-Work

For Facilitators

  • Review participant profiles and expectations
  • Prepare all materials and supplies
  • Test technology and room setup

For Participants

  • Complete pre-session survey
  • Review background materials
  • Prepare examples or case studies

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Materials Required


  • 2x2 matrix template (online whiteboard).

  • Virtual sticky notes.

  • Validation planning template.

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Resources & Templates

Assumptions Matrix Template - Mural
Mural template for assumption mapping.

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