Strategy
Assumption Mapping
Every project has assumptions. This exercise makes them visible. Write down what you think you know. Be honest about what's validated versus what you hope is true. The riskiest assumptions are often the ones you don't realize you're making.
Duration
45 mins
Group Size
4-8
Category
Strategy
Difficulty
Easy
- Reveal hidden assumptions treated as facts.
- Distinguish between knowledge and guesses.
- Prioritize assumptions that could kill the project.
- Create a testing plan for unknowns.
- Build shared understanding.
- A documented list of assumptions ranked by risk.
- Critical assumptions are identified for validation.
- Team understands the difference between knowledge and guesses.
People resist writing down 'obvious' assumptions. Push them. Ask, 'How do we know this?' If the answer is 'it's obvious,' put it on the wall.
Senior people's assumptions often go unquestioned. The sticky note format helps level the playing field. During placement, ask for disagreement: 'Does anyone see this differently?'
Teams overestimate their evidence. Challenge them. 'We did research' doesn't mean you validated this assumption. Be specific about what counts: behavioral data beats stated preferences.
If risk is debated, that's a red flag. Someone knows something others don't, or there's a strategic disagreement. Don't ignore it.
This is useless without follow-through. Assign owners and deadlines for the top 3 tests before leaving. Track them. I've seen teams ignore what they learned.
Senior people's assumptions often go unquestioned. The sticky note format helps level the playing field. During placement, ask for disagreement: 'Does anyone see this differently?'
Teams overestimate their evidence. Challenge them. 'We did research' doesn't mean you validated this assumption. Be specific about what counts: behavioral data beats stated preferences.
If risk is debated, that's a red flag. Someone knows something others don't, or there's a strategic disagreement. Don't ignore it.
This is useless without follow-through. Assign owners and deadlines for the top 3 tests before leaving. Track them. I've seen teams ignore what they learned.
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