Product 2016

Experiment Canvas

Six boxes that turn a risky assumption into a falsifiable test with a recorded verdict.

What it is

Riskiest Assumption leads into a Falsifiable Hypothesis written to a fixed formula — 'we believe (action) will drive (outcome) within (timeframe)' — then Experiment Setup naming the prototype, variables and metrics, Results, a Conclusion of validated, invalidated or inconclusive, and Next Steps. The six boxes run in that order, left to right or top to bottom.

Reach for it when

• A team that keeps calling a demo 'validation' with no falsifiable claim behind it
• A roadmap decision resting on an assumption nobody has actually tested
• A group that ran a test and never wrote down what it would have meant to fail

Running it

1. Name the Riskiest Assumption first and say plainly why it matters if it's wrong.
2. Write the hypothesis to the fixed formula: we believe (specific testable action) will drive (specific measurable outcome) within (timeframe).
3. Define the Experiment Setup — the prototype, variables, metrics, and whether the test is quantitative or qualitative — in a 30 to 45 minute session.
4. Record Results as they come in, then close with a Conclusion of validated, invalidated or inconclusive, and a Next Steps call to pivot, persevere or redo.