Strategy 1971

Futures Wheel

A change in the middle, its direct consequences in the first ring, and their consequences in the second, where the surprises live.

What it is

Write a change or decision in the centre. Ring one is its direct consequences. Ring two is the consequences of those. Most groups can guess ring one on their own; ring two is where the second-order effects nobody budgeted for show up, which is the entire reason the method exists.

Reach for it when

• A leadership team is about to commit to a decision and only sees the upside
• A policy or pricing change needs its knock-on effects surfaced before launch
• A strategy offsite needs to think past the next two quarters

Running it

1. One change in the centre, stated concretely with a date. Vague centres produce vague rings.
2. Ring one in silence first, one consequence per sticky, then read them out. Silent generation stops the loudest person setting the frame.
3. For every ring-one note, push for at least two ring-two consequences. This is the step groups want to skip and the step that pays.
4. Mark the ring-two notes that are both plausible and unwelcome. Those are the ones to plan for.