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Iceberg Systems Analysis

Four layers below a visible event — patterns, structures, mental models — for finding what drives a chronic problem.

What it is

A vertical iceberg: the visible Event sits above the waterline, and Patterns/Trends, System Structures, and Mental Models stack in descending layers below it, widening as they go deeper. The exercise moves a group from what happened, to whether it's happened before, to what structures produce that pattern, down to the beliefs that keep those structures in place.

Reach for it when

• The same problem keeps recurring despite repeated fixes aimed at the visible event.
• A postmortem is about to turn into blame assignment instead of systemic learning.
• A recurring issue gets treated as a one-off every time it resurfaces.

Running it

1. Name the triggering Event at the top of the iceberg.
2. Ask whether this has happened before, and capture the Patterns/Trends.
3. Dig into what System Structures — processes, incentives, relationships — produce that pattern.
4. Surface the Mental Models underneath those structures, then discuss which layer offers the highest-leverage intervention.