Product

Riskiest Assumption Canvas

A Jenga-tower grid that sorts assumptions to find the one that collapses everything.

What it is

Already Validated sits at the top of the tower for safe, proven assumptions; Assumptions fills the middle with everything the idea depends on, one per sticky note; and a single Riskiest Assumption occupies the base block — the one that, if false, brings the whole idea down. Only one assumption is allowed at the base.

Reach for it when

• A team spending its validation budget on assumptions it's already confident about
• A pitch that hasn't named the one thing that would kill the whole idea if wrong
• A group that disagrees about which assumption actually matters most and needs that argument surfaced

Running it

1. Brainstorm every assumption the idea depends on and write one per sticky note.
2. Sort notes into the tower: proven or low-impact ones go to the top, everything else fills the middle.
3. Debate as a group which single remaining assumption is most load-bearing and move only that one to the base block.
4. Take the riskiest assumption straight into an Experiment Canvas to design a test for it, then revisit the tower after each experiment.