Strategy
Futures Wheel
The Futures Wheel maps the cascading consequences of a trend, event, or decision. Developed by futurist Jerome Glenn, it helps teams systematically think through primary, secondary, and tertiary impacts, revealing intended and unintended consequences. The visual nature of the Futures Wheel clarifies cause-and-effect relationships. It's useful for impact assessment, policy analysis, and strategic planning where ripple effects matter. Combine this with impact scoring or stakeholder analysis. It's great input for scenario and risk work. I've found it can get unwieldy with very large groups, so keep it focused.
Duration
1.5 hours
Group Size
4-8
Category
Strategy
Difficulty
Easy
Participants will:
- Map direct and indirect consequences of changes or decisions.
- Identify unintended effects and externalities.
- Understand cascade effects through multiple orders of impact.
- Build shared understanding of complex implications.
- Support more informed decision-making.
- A completed Futures Wheel analysis.
- Mapped implications of change.
- Understood cascading effects.
Keep consequences specific and concrete. Encourage wild ideas early on. Use "What happens next?" prompts. Prevent premature convergence on obvious impacts. Rotate who adds consequences to maintain energy. Quality check: Are consequences distinct? Is the wheel visually clear?
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